Fishing vessels in Chatham, MA (Credit: A. Birkenbach)
Dr. Birkenbach and co-authors Min-Yang Lee and Martin D. Smith published their paper, Counterfactual Modeling of Multispecies Fisheries Outcomes under Market-Based Regulation, in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, marking the culmination of work funded by the NMFS/Sea Grant Fellowship in Marine Resource Economics and NOAA Fisheries. Dr. Birkenbach led the development of the Multispecies Intra-Seasonal Targeting/Timing Choice (MISTIC) model and estimation of structural parameters that allow for the prediction of individual fisher choices as to what and when to fish. Using the New England groundfish fishery as their empirical application, the authors conduct a counterfactual analysis of how fishers’ choices and their aggregate outcomes would have differed if the fishery had not transitioned to quota/catch share management.
Beyond this study, the MISTIC model has the potential to inform management decisions by predicting behavioral responses to policy or environmental changes that have not yet occured. It is also intended to advance nationwide efforts to integrate more socioeconomic data and methods into fisheries management. Follow-up projects are already underway…stay tuned!